NFL Draft Over/Under: Miami Dolphins

Author | Michael Weitzner

Here is the concept for this article: I’m going to talk about each round of the draft as a whole, make a prediction of over/under for picks each round, and discuss what trades could happen (and why the Dolphins might be inclined to make the trade). I might also chat about some draft prospects and which ones I think the Dolphins should be interested in. This article is NOT a mock draft. If you want to check out the Almost Sports Miami mock draft, click here!

So, I’ve been joking for months that the Dolphins’ team needs are as follows: quarterback, running back, tight end, wide receiver, left tackle, left guard, center, right guard, right tackle, 3-4 defensive end, defensive tackle, nose tackle, 4-3 defensive end, weakside linebacker, inside linebacker, strongside linebacker, boundary corner, nickel corner, strong safety, and free safety . . . so every position.

While there are a TON of team needs, in reality, there aren’t that many. According to www.thephinsider.com, offensive line is the top priority, followed by (and in this order): quarterback, edge rusher, running back, corner back, defensive end, and  nose tackles. The article goes on to consider safeties, tight ends, and wide receivers are “low” priorities; and deems punter, fullback, long snapper (lol), and kicker as no need.

Personally, for top priorities, I would put quarterback at the top of the list, followed by offensive tackle (both sides), and then edge rusher. At the next level—significant need—cornerback and safety stand alone. Head Coach Brian Flores loves to have six defensive backs on the field, and Miami needs two to three more to be effective in dimes. The last level of “need” is interior offensive line (center and both left and right guard), running back, and traditional 4-3 defensive end. If you want my team needs in list form, here you go:

Top Priority

1.     Quarterback

2.     Offensive tackle

3.     Edge rusher

Significant Need

4.    Safety

5.    Cornerback

Need

6.     Guard

7.     Center

8.     Running back

9.     Traditional 4-3 defensive end

1st Round

Picks: #5 (R1, P4), #18 (R1, P18), #26 (R1, P26)

O/U: 2.5

This might be the easiest O/U of the entire draft. The Dolphins want (NEED) Tua Tagovailoa, QB from Alabama. I truly believe the Dolphins will need to trade up—likely to #3—in order to secure Tua. That means Miami is going to give up (at least) one of the other 1st round picks. With the one remaining pick, offensive tackle should be the selection. I prefer Josh Jones, left tackle from Houston, who will likely be available at #26 and will definitely be there at #18.

But, if by some miracle Tua falls to #5 and Miami keeps all three 1st round picks, edge rusher or best available defensive back should be targeted. Outsider linebacker Zack Baun from Wisconsin is my favorite for edge rusher and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. from Minnesota is the pick for defensive back.

Ultimately, I believe the 1st round will go UNDER as a result of a trade up to locked in Tua and the other pick will go towards an offensive tackle.

2nd Round

Picks: #39 (R2, P7), #56 (R2, P24)

O/U: 1.5

The 2nd round is a tricky one. If you are part of the camp that feels trading up to #3 to get Tua is a foregone conclusion (I am, in fact, part of that camp), it seems obvious that one of the Dolphins’ two 2nd round picks might be going to the Lions. However, even if one of these original 2nd rounders comes into the possession of Detroit, I still think the Dolphins will end up taking two draftees in the 2nd round.

Traditionally, the 2nd round is where teams find value. Just last year, Rock Ya-Sin, Jawaan Taylor, Deebo Samuel, Cody Ford, Greg Little, Greedy Williams, Erik McCoy, A.J. Brown, Miles Sanders, Mecole Hardman, and DK Metcalf all were drafted in the second round.

In the aftermath of the mass exodus/expulsion following Brian Flores’ hiring in 2019, the Dolphins are in great need of quality players at most (if not all) positions. Because of this fact, I could see Miami trading into the 2nd round and drafting multiple players. OVER!

3rd Round

Pick: #70 (R3, P6)

O/U: 0.5

There is a good chance that the Dolphins end up not having a single 3rd round pick, simply because of the fact that Miami will be looking to be aggressive in the first two rounds. Nevertheless, this year’s 3rd round is shaping up to be absolutely loaded with running back talent.

Just from doing research for Almost Sports Miami mock drafts and observing mock draft of others, Jonathan Taylor (RB from Wisconsin) and D’Andre Swift (RB from Georgia) seem to be the only ones sneaking into the 1st round. That means all of these running backs will be available in the 2nd and 3rd rounds: J.K. Dobbins, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Cam Akers, Anthony McFarland, Eno Benjamin, Zack Moss, And AJ Dillon—all of whom could be day one starters.

Miami needs at least one (and more likely two) quality running back. I think the 3rd round is where the Dolphins find their running back. OVER!

4th Round

Pick: #141 (R4, P38)

O/U: 0.5

If the price is right, I could see the Dolphins having multiple 4th round picks from trades. However, I think it’s much more likely that Miami uses this pick as ammunition to trade for additional 2nd or 3rd round picks. It’s an UNDER for me dawg.

5th Round

Picks: #153 (R5, P7), #154 (R5, P8) #173 (R5, P27)

O/U: 2.5

Surprisingly, the Dolphins have actual had good luck in the 5th round over the years, drafting Davon Godchaux in 2017; Bobby McCain and Jay Ajayi in 2015; Caleb Strugis in 2013; and Reshad Jones in 2010. I hope the Dolphins try their luck again and use all of their picks. OVER!

6th & 7th Rounds

6th Picks: #185 (R6, P6)

7th Picks: #227 (R7, P13), #246 (R7, P32), #251 (R7, P37)

O/U: 2.5

I’m combining the last two rounds because most of the players drafted here are more likely to end up on the practice squad (or cut outright) than to actually make it onto the regular season roster. I think it’s equally likely that Miami uses some of these picks to trade up in this draft or to get more picks in the 2021 draft. Big time UNDER here.